Champs!

Post by **Count Henri** » Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:16 am

Prediction : I will be the 2003 Champion...

"I'm guided by a signal in the heavens
I'm guided by this birthmark on my skin
I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons
First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin"

'First we take Manhattan' - Leonard Cohen.

Saladin · Post by **Saladin** » Mon Dec 16, 2002 2:45 am

Well said Dom...i mean like you told me before.

After you've ripped Massi, Egbert, Nemesis, Goat Herder and Raw...you'll get to rip Aussie, Duke and me...will be one hell of a fight.

PS: Baron of course after all non TKG players are ripped the rest of us will all surrender to our omnicient leader...Duke.

Goat Herder · Post by **Goat Herder** » Mon Dec 16, 2002 4:24 am

SmashFace wrote:PEOPLE PEOPLE PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i wanted banter about the championship game, not the rules of the champs or how many player from the same clan are in it. NOW PLEASE GET BACK TO BANTER ABOUT THE GAME!!! this fighting is just BS anyways, any more predictions?????

So, you want banter? predictions? swearing? BS? banter? Your wish is my...... consideration!

The banter from the other side of the map is that Smashface seriously underestimated his odds in his earlier post. What's the story Smashface? Trying to manipualate the market? or hiding your true position? No matter --- I'll take 100 bucks on Mr Massiel at 10,000 to 1.

Saladin · Post by **Saladin** » Mon Dec 16, 2002 4:29 am

I'll take that bed Goat Herder.

you want to send the money over now? I could use it with all the big Xmas spending i have to do.

Saladin · Post by **Saladin** » Mon Dec 16, 2002 4:34 am

Talking about bets...looking at my own prediction...i'd put a tenner on Nemesis at 6-1...he's a great wok 5 player and who knows...maybe everybody will leave him alone as he doesn't have a clan mate and isn't called Egbert.

SmashFace · Post by **SmashFace** » Mon Dec 16, 2002 5:35 am

GH:
Hey now, I am not that good, i'm just thinking logically... or maybe not.. who knows... as you put it, I'M A MAD MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by **Duke** » Mon Dec 16, 2002 1:54 pm

Dameon wrote:Champs: My money is on a TKG. Probably Saladin or Gaz. I mean four clan members in a game- how much of an edge do you need going in really?

One may KNOW how to conquer without being able to DO it
- Sun Tzu, The art of War

I have to hand it to either Tomb Raider or the Game engine (no not luck this time

) I would have put good money on her being RIP by now.

I just need to put in my two cents here about the fact that four of the same clan are in the Champs.

If we dont outnumber the rest in the group, it is a safer assumption that we are in a worse situation than in an ordinary group where we are only two. Naturally they will sooner or later team up on us. If they dont they will be facing a four-way-war at some point and I dont think anyone wants to be the victim of that. Sure we have the numbers with us now but we will be under constant attack throughout the entire game. Who would let four members of the same clan sleep?
If I were you I would keep an eye on Raw and GH as they are two and they are being left alone. When the TKG are done with TR and at some point Massie then we will be roughed up quite a bit and maybe even fewer than we were from the beginning.

D.

Saladin · Post by **Saladin** » Tue Dec 17, 2002 1:08 am

Duke wrote: I have to hand it to either Tomb Raider or the Game engine (no not luck this time ) I would have put good money on her being RIP by now.

Well it's my own fault...i jinxed myself by using the L word.

Of course it was luck...i replayed the attack in the battle calcultor and in 50.000 turns it could NOT reproduce the result she got.

Post by **ThinKing** » Tue Dec 17, 2002 2:42 am

I wish I knew who made that (Censored) battle calculator. If I could get my hands on that (Censored), I'd wring his (Censored) neck!

Fifty thousand (Censored) combats and it still can't get the right answer!

I wonder, why does the board change "(Censored)" to "dangnabbit", instead of changing it to "(Censored)"? In England, "dangnabbit" is far more offensive than say (Censored), or (Censored).

This has been a Public Service Announcement on behalf of the (Censored)....

TK - officially a (Censored) since 1983

Post by **Dameon** » Tue Dec 17, 2002 3:25 am

Oh my yes, TR got lucky. Not quite THAT lucky though. I don't want to release numbers or specifics in public at this point, but I'd say that the odds were with Saladin going in there. Not as much as he says though- I'd say with both attacks he had about 3:1 odds or so in favor of his taking the province. But it was nowhere near a foregone 50:000:1 conclusion. I'd be happy to share my own calculations with you if you like Saladin just hit me up and I'll show you that a human Battle Calculator can beat a machine any old day.

Underdog · Post by **Underdog** » Tue Dec 17, 2002 4:02 am

Is there actually a battle calculator for WOK5?
That WOK4 calculator is only good for the first few turns in a wok5 game. I understand that the champs is early enough that it is probably worthwhile but once upgraded troops come around that thing is USELESS.
It cannot take into account the level bonus lost as the upgrades are lost.
Now where was that guy who made the wok4 calculator so we can put him to work on a WOK5 calculator that works and takes all those things into account?
Hint Hint. maybe he should do something for a class in school.

Saladin · Post by **Saladin** » Tue Dec 17, 2002 4:53 pm

Dameon wrote:Oh my yes, TR got lucky. Not quite THAT lucky though. I don't want to release numbers or specifics in public at this point, but I'd say that the odds were with Saladin going in there. Not as much as he says though- I'd say with both attacks he had about 3:1 odds or so in favor of his taking the province. But it was nowhere near a foregone 50:000:1 conclusion.

I wasn't talking about not taking the province...i was prepared for that, but not that she'd only lose 3 armies in total!

Here's the fight:

++ You are attacking Province#37 from Tomb Raider
The Terrain you attack is a PLAIN [+Knights,+Spirits]

You use these 12 troops from your Province #38 :
°° 12 Armies

Your Basic Level is... 2.060
Your Extra Level is... 0.000
Your Creature Bonus... 0.000 [Max:0.686]
-----------------------------
Your Fight Level is = 2.060

°° You have an Effectiveness Level of 98%
°° Your starting Attack Power (PATT) is 20.188

The enemy has these 13 troops for Defense :
°° 13 Armies

The Basic Level of the enemy is... 1.000
The Extra Level of the enemy is... 0.000
The enemy Creature Bonus makes.... 0.000 [Max:0.333]
-----------------------------------------
The Fight Level of the enemy is = 1.000

The Defenses of the Province are.. 1.600
The Terrain and City Bonus gives.. 0.500
-----------------------------------------
The enemy Defense Level is = 2.100

°° The enemy has an Effectiveness Level of 99%
°° Your enemy has a starting Defense Power (PDEF) of 18.216

########## BATTLE BEGIN ########## FIGHT FOR PROVINCE #37 #####
[20.188] [18.216] [2] [3] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [2] [13] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [12] [16] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [8] [3] + ATTACKER WINS + Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [2] [12] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [4] [11] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [8] [13] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [4] [6] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [15] [16] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [16] [12] + ATTACKER WINS + Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [7] [15] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [15] [15] == ITS A DRAW ==
[20.188] [18.216] [0] [5] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [17] [15] + ATTACKER WINS + Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [0] [14] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost
[20.188] [18.216] [3] [9] - DEFENDER WINS - Army lost

** You have lost the battle. 10 enemy Units remain.

Now try to reproduce that in the battle calculator...i couldn't.

Post by **Dameon** » Tue Dec 17, 2002 8:33 pm

Yeah, I won't argue that she should have lost more troops. But so what? In the end what really matters is whether or not she kept the province, not how many troops she lost along the way. I still place the odds of the truly important thing, taking the province, at 3:1 in your favor- good odds, but not insurmountable.

Bjorn · Post by **Bjorn** » Wed Dec 18, 2002 7:46 pm

Many years ago I suggested that the battle calculator would be more useful to me if it could give me the standard deviation of the expected battle results. If you know the starting PATT and PDEF, you can get a good estimate of losses. For this battle the attacker can expect to lose 4 armies for each 5 he kills. Obviously, short term variations in the data sample (what we call the 'L' word) led to an unusual result. The more rounds the battle goes, the closer to the expected result you get. Battles with less than 20 combats can lead to extreme results.

This leads me to believe that this combat system has a fairly high standard deviation. To prove this I would have to run several fairly large battles and record how EACH result varied from the expected result. I also believe that the larger the PATT/PDEF ratio the greater the standard deviation, but again, I have not proven it.

There really is no reasonable way to factor in the LEV difference that upgraded troops provide, nor the occasional loss of DEF in an area. That is what makes the combat system so wonderful! While you can estimate the probability of the outcome, the real result can be quite different.

Some interesting material here for a math student.

Post by **ThinKing** » Thu Dec 19, 2002 12:53 am

Tell me about it...the sleepless nights I've had trying to think of a simpler way to record the probability of a win...

For those who panic easily, the WOK4 calculator *does* factor in the infrequent DEF loss.

A WOK5 calculator would be an ugly thing - imagine typing in all the modifiers (upgrade type, number, LEV, creature, NAP level, EFF, etc). It would take half an hour to set up one combat...

TK

Raw · Post by **Raw** » Mon Dec 30, 2002 8:21 pm

Updated Odds...

Egbert 2-1
Saladin 10-1
AG 100-1
Smashface 3-1
GH 3-1
Massielita 3-1
Duke 6-1
Nemesis 5-1
Raw 5-1
Tomb Raider 100-1

Crazy_Psycho · Post by **Crazy_Psycho** » Mon Dec 30, 2002 8:52 pm

I think I'll go for Nemesis. TKG is already being spanked by Massie and TR.
Go Nemesis!!

Nestalawe · Post by **Nestalawe** » Tue Dec 31, 2002 4:29 pm

Yep, I'll vote for Nemesis as well, all my money...

Go for it little buddy ; )

SmashFace · Post by **SmashFace** » Thu Jan 09, 2003 2:29 am

Egbert 2-1
Saladin 20-1
AG 0
Smashface 4-1
GH 3-1
Massielita 3-1
Duke 6-1
Nemesis 4-1
Raw 3-1
Tomb Raider 100-1

The Worlds of Kaomaris

Champs!

Battle Calculator

Interesting....

my money