Next thing to look at is MIS. We've defined how much ARM, DEF and TEC are worth (at least in trewqh's formula, my MIS value may need some tweaking when we count the potential trade ins from TEC) so we have a fairly good idea of what one missile is worth. We're going to get some interesting interplay once we add spies to the mix as spies and missiles can kill each other, but we'll deal with that later.

We're still inside a bracket of things which are affected equally by EFF, so assuming it's at 100 missiles have:

a 25% chance of killing an average of 3 armies

a 25% chance of killing an average of 3 spies

a 25% chance of killing an average of 9 TEC points

a 25% chance of killing exactly 0.1 DEF

note, this assumes short range bombing. There is no simple way to say how often bombs will be long and how often will be short ranged. If anyone has a suggestion, we can add a multiplier to take the extra misses into account I will call this "H" for hitrate in these formulae, but it will be 1 unless anyone has a better suggestion.

We have another interesting point here. The value of these missiles will, in part, depend on the LEV of an opponent's armies as well as the number of armies, amount of DEF and number of TEC points. We can make an arbitary multiplier, or we can read across all player reports to get these values or we can use the players' own provinces as a rough guide. Thoughts?

So, in terms of what a missile can take out it should be

H * {3 * (points per army) / 4 + 3 * (points per spy) / 4 + 9 * (points per tech point)/4 + (points per DEF)/40}

The points per spy come next, so I'll call those S.

The points for one army is:

{ (2 * LEV - 1) + (2 * DEF - 1) / 5}] * min[int_val{(TEC + 150)/50},7]

or

{ (2 * LEVa - 1) + (2 * DEF - 1) / 5}] * (TEC + 150)/50

The points for one Tech point is:

{ARM * (2 * LEV - 1) + (2 * DEF - 1)/5 } /50 (sorry trewqh, we have to make this "potential as we don't know which missile will knock the TEC down far enough until it's fired)

and the points for one DEF is:

(2/5) * ARM * (2 * LEV - 1) * (TEC + 150) / 50

For anyone wondering, I got these values by increasing the value of LEV and DEF by one and calculating how much the value of the formula changed.

This brings the intrinsic value of a missile to

Code: Select all

`(H/40) * {30 * { (2 * LEVa - 1) + (2 * DEF - 1) / 5}] * (TEC + 150)/50 `

+ 30 * (S)

+ 90 * {A * (2 * LEV - 1) + (2 * DEF - 1)/5 } /50

+ (2/5) * ARM * (2 * LEV - 1) * (TEC + 150) / 50}

Or the equivalent with the top line changed to trewqh's version.